Mexico flu cases easing but pandemic still likely

PASCAL FLETCHER | MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - May 03 2009 08:13



MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's flu outbreak appeared to be easing with a fall in serious cases, the government said, but world health officials warned the unpredictable virus could still become a pandemic. (We have to always be ready for the worse situation in the future)


"Each day there are fewer serious cases and the mortality has been decreasing," Health Minister José Ángel Córdova told a news conference in Mexico City, where millions were heeding government advice to stay at home.


Of the more than 100 suspected deaths from the new H1N1 virus that have emerged in Mexico, 19 had been confirmed, Córdova said. Mexico had already scaled back from its original estimate of 176 suspected deaths.


However, new cases of the mongrel virus, which mixes swine, avian and human flu strains, were still being tracked across the world. Costa Rica, Italy and Ireland confirmed cases of the disease, which has now been found in 18 countries.


In Geneva, the World Health Organisation said H1N1 influenza had not spread in a sustained way outside North America, as required before the pandemic alert is raised to its highest level. But it said that would probably happen soon.


"I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent because we are seeing the disease spread," Michael Ryan, WHO director of Global Alert and Response, told a briefing on Saturday.


Few countries are ready to take chances with the new virus, widely dubbed swine flu.


In Canada, health officials said a traveler carried the virus from Mexico to Canada and infected his family and a herd of swine. (Now human to animals)


The Canadian Food Inspection Agency said the herd had been quarantined and the safety of the food supply was not affected.


Few are ready to take chances with the new virus, widely dubbed swine flu.


Action by the Chinese authorities to hold Mexicans in hotels and other places because of flu fears sparked a diplomatic row with Mexico.


In Hong Kong, police quarantined a hotel for one week after a Mexican guest was found to have the virus and Mexicans were also being confined in Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere.


Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa criticised China, saying Mexican citizens who showed no signs of illness at all were being "isolated, under unacceptable conditions." (Another problem, swine flu’s destroying the relationship between countries)


Hong Kong is under Chinese control but has its own government. The authorities in Hong Kong have confined around 300 guests and staff in the hotel.


Asia's trade and tourism could be hit by the flu outbreak but lessons from the SARS epidemic in 2003 would boost efforts to counter the effects, Jong-Wha Lee, the acting chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, said on Sunday.


"I think Asia has been well prepared because the region has good experience in countering SARS," Lee said on the Indonesian island of Bali where the ADB was holding its annual meeting.